Choice of variables, climate models and emissions scenarios all influence the results of species distribution models under future climatic conditions. However, an overview of applied studies suggests that the uncertainty associated with these factors is not always appropriately incorporated or even considered.

Species ranges have been shifting since the Pleistocene, whereby fragmentation, isolation, and the subsequent reduction in gene flow have resulted in local adaptation of novel genotypes and the repeated evolution of endemic species. While there is a wide body of literature focused on understanding endemic species, very few studies empirically test whether or not the evolution of endemics results in unique function or ecological differences relative to their widespread congeners; in particular while controlling for environmental variation.

In experimental plant communities, relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning have been found to strengthen over time, a fact often attributed to increased resource complementarity between species in mixtures and negative plant–soil feedbacks in monocultures. Here we show that selection for niche differentiation between species can drive this increasing biodiversity effect.

In this paper the researchers review and synthesize current knowledge about among-population variation in physiological and morphological traits related to plant recruitment. We outline the consequences of that variation for species persistence under climate change, and discuss the implications for conservation, management and restoration.

For evaluating climate change impacts on biodiversity, extensive experiments are urgently needed to complement popular non-mechanistic models which map future ecosystem properties onto their current climatic niche. Here, we experimentally test the main prediction of these models by means of a novel multi-site approach. We implement rainfall manipulations—irrigation and drought—to dryland plant communities situated along a steep climatic gradient in a global biodiversity hotspot containing many wild progenitors of crops.