Human activities have been implicated in the observed increase in Global Mean Surface Temperature. Over regional scales where climatic changes determine societal impacts and drive adaptation related decisions, detection and attribution (D&A) of climate change can be challenging due to the greater contribution of internal variability, greater uncertainty in regionally important forcings, greater errors in climate models, and larger observational uncertainty in many regions of the world.

Crested Auklets (Aethia cristatella) and Least Auklets (A. pusilla) are crevice-nesting birds that breed in large mixed colonies at relatively few sites in the Aleutian Island archipelago, Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and Sea of Okhotsk. Many of these colonies are located on active volcanic islands. The eruption of Kasatochi volcano, in the central Aleutians, on August 7, 2008, completely buried all crevice-nesting seabird habitat on the island. This provided an opportunity to examine the response of a large, mixed auklet colony to a major geological disturbance.