The Eliassen–Palm flux and Plumb wave activity flux are calculated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis daily dataset to determine the propagation of Rossby waves before a North American cold wave in January 2014. The results show that the upward wave activity fluxes mainly come from planetary waves 1 and 2, which provide a stable circulation background for the influence of the subplanetary-scale waves 3 and 4.

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Extreme large-scale North American cold events are associated with strong undulations in the tropospheric jet stream which bring cold polar air southward over the continent. Here we propose that these jet undulations are associated with the North American part of the Circumglobal Teleconnection Pattern—a pair of zonally oriented waves of zonal wave number 5 which are in zonal quadrature with each other. While the Pacific/North American pattern is associated with the first circumglobal wave pattern, North American extreme cold events are associated with the second pattern.

The frequency, duration, and intensity of cold waves are expected to decrease in the near future under the changing climate. However, there is a lack of understanding on future mortality related to cold waves. The present study conducted a large-scale national projection to estimate future mortality attributable to cold waves during 1960–2050 in 209 US cities.

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