Climate projections have confirmed the need to adapt to a changing climate, but have been less beneficial in guiding how to effectively adapt. The reason is the uncertainty cascade, from assumptions about future emissions of greenhouse gases to what that means for the climate to real decisions on a local scale. Each of the steps in the process contains uncertainty and these uncertainties from various levels of the assessment accumulate. This cascade of uncertainty should be critically analyzed to inform decision makers about the certain range of future changes.

On the basis of past 115 years (1901-2015) rainfall data of five districts of south Gujarat, the MannKendall trend, Sen’s slope and regression slope showed that annual and monsoon rainfall at Valsad, Dang and Surat shows the increasing trend while, that of Navsari and Bharuch districts are declining. The monsoon season (summer monsoon) rainfall variability of Valsad, Dang, Surat, Navsari and Bharuch districts was recorded is 30.1%, 30.9%, 35.9%. 33.3% and 38.6%.

Annual and seasonal variability and trends in low cloud cover over India were analyzed for the period 1961-2010. Taking all period into account, there is a general decrease in mean low cloud cover over most regions of India, but an increase in the Indo-Gangetic plains and northeast India. Long term mean low cloud cover over India has inter-annual variations with highest cloud cover (39.4%) in monsoon and lowest cloud cover (10.5%) in winter season.