Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration.

The characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) and their response to climate change is an issue of broad concern.

The tropical cyclone Dineo made landfall over southern Mozambique on 15 February 2017. It weakened to a remnant low on 17 February, which hit Botswana on the same day and triggered heavy rainfall that resulted in flooding over the country. This study assesses the performance of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) models in forecasting the locations and intensity of the tropical cyclone and its remnant low, the associated cloud cover and rainfall over Botswana.