The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is the major source of variability in winter atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere, with large impacts on temperature, precipitation and storm tracks, and therefore also on strategic sectors such as insurance, renewable energy production, crop yields and water management. Recent developments in dynamical methods offer promise to improve seasonal NAO predictions, but assessing potential predictability on multi-annual timescales requires documentation of past low-frequency variability in the NAO.

We perform global-scale inverse modeling to constrain present-day atmospheric mercury emissions and relevant physiochemical parameters in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. We use Bayesian inversion methods combining simulations with GEOS-Chem and groundbased Hg0 observations from regional monitoring networks and individual sites in recent years.

Original Source

Surface weather conditions are closely governed by the large-scale circulation of the Earth’s atmosphere. Recent increases in the occurrence of some extreme weather phenomena have led to multiple mechanistic hypotheses linking changes in atmospheric circulation to increasing probability of extreme events. However, observed evidence of long-term change in atmospheric circulation remains inconclusive.

The UK is one of several countries around the world that has enacted legislation to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we present top-down emissions
of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) for the UK and Ireland over the period August 2012 to August 2014. These emissions were inferred using measurements from a network of four sites around the two countries. We used a hierarchical Bayesian inverse framework to infer fluxes as well as a set of covariance parameters that describe uncertainties in the system.

During the months of June and July 2013, over the Euro–Mediterranean area, the ADRIMED (Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the Mediterranean region) project was dedicated to characterize the ozone and aerosol concentrations in the troposphere. It is first shown that this period was not highly polluted compared to previous summers in this region, with a moderate ozone production, no significant vegetation fire events and several precipitation periods scavenging the aerosol.

Fungal spores as a prominent type of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) have been incorporated into the COSMO-ART (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases) regional atmospheric model. Two literature-based emission rates for fungal spores derived from fungal spore colony counts and chemical tracer measurements were used as a parameterization baseline for this study. A third, new emission parameterization for fluorescent biological aerosol particles (FBAP) was adapted to field measurements from four locations across Europe.