The observed decline in Arctic sea ice is projected to continue, opening shorter trade routes across the Arctic Ocean, with potentially global economic implications. Here we quantify, using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global climate model simulations calibrated to remove spatial biases, how projected sea ice loss might increase opportunities for Arctic transit shipping. By midcentury for standard open water vessels, the frequency of navigable periods doubles, with routes across the central Arctic becoming available.

In 1959 the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built Camp Century beneath the surface of the northwestern Greenland Ice Sheet. There they studied the feasibility of deploying ballistic missiles within the ice sheet. The base and its wastes were abandoned with minimal decommissioning in 1967, under the assumption they would be preserved for eternity by perpetually accumulating snowfall.

This bottom-up modeling study, supported by new population census 2011 data, simulates ozone (O3) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exposure on local to regional scales. It quantifies, present-day premature mortalities associated with the exposure to near-surface PM2.5 and O3 concentrations in India using a regional chemistry model. We estimate that PM2.5 exposure leads to about 570,000 (CI95: 320,000–730,000) premature mortalities in 2011. On a national scale, our estimate of mortality by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) due to O3 exposure is about 12,000 people.

Continuous measurements of atmospheric methane (CH4) mole fractions measured by NOAA's Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network in Barrow, AK (BRW), show strong enhancements above background values when winds come from the land sector from July to December from 1986 to 2015, indicating that emissions from arctic tundra continue through autumn and into early winter.

Original Source

Changes to the grounding line, where grounded ice starts to float, can be used as a remotely-sensed measure of ice-sheet susceptibility to ocean-forced dynamic thinning. Constraining this susceptibility is vital for predicting Antarctica's contribution to rising sea levels. We use Landsat imagery to monitor grounding line movement over four decades along the Bellingshausen margin of West Antarctica, an area little monitored despite potential for future ice losses.

Particulate matter is a major concern for public health, causing cancer and cardiopulmonary mortality. Therefore, governments in most industrialized countries monitor and set limits for particulate matter. To assist policy makers, it is important to connect the chemical composition and severity of particulate pollution to its sources. Here we show how agricultural practices, livestock production, and the use of nitrogen fertilizers impact near-surface air quality.

Following strong westerly wind bursts in boreal winter and spring of 2014, both the scientific community and the popular press were abuzz with the possibility of a major El Niño developing. However, during the boreal summer of 2014, the Bjerknes feedback failed to kick in, aided and abetted by a strong easterly wind burst. The widely anticipated major 2014-5 El Niño event failed to materialize and even failed to qualify as an El Niño by conventional definitions.

We develop a statistical model using extreme value theory to estimate the 2000-2050 changes in ozone episodes across the United States. We model the relationships between daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and maximum daily 8-hour average (MDA8) ozone in May-September over 2003-2012 using a Point Process (PP) model. At ~20% of the sites, a marked decrease in the ozone-temperature slope occurs at high temperatures, defined as ozone suppression.

Extreme and large-scale warming events in the ocean have been dubbed marine heatwaves,and these have been documented in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. This paper examinesthe intensity, duration, and frequency of positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlanticand North Pacific Oceans over the period 1950–2014 using an objective definition for marine heatwavesbased on their probability of occurrence. Small-area anomalies occur more frequently than large-areaanomalies, and this relationship can be characterized by a power law distribution.

Aerosol indirect effects suffer from large uncertainty in climate models and among observations. This study focuses on two plausible factors: regime dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions and the effect of cloud droplet spectral shape. We show, using a new parcel model, that combined consideration of droplet number concentration (Nc) and relative dispersion (ε, ratio of standard deviation to mean radius of the cloud droplet size distribution) better characterizes the regime dependence of aerosol-cloud interactions than considering Nc alone.