"We apologise for recent price increases," reads the sign over the bread counter, "but they are due to global factors beyond our control." This is not a Third World food stall but an upscale supermarket in Brussels, capital of the European Union, whose farming system was once notorious for the mountains of surplus grain it produced. Those mountains are now gone. The world is down to its lowest grain stocks for decades, and food prices are up around the world.

While cutting down rainforests to grow palm oil for biofuels may constitute "madness" (1 December 2007, p 50), burning other vegetable oils is no more sane, nor less damaging to Indonesia's rainforests. Indonesia is expected to increase its palm oil production by more than half over the next 10 years. This is driven, in part, by China, which used to buy rapeseed oil from Europe for food and for industrial uses, but is switching to Indonesian palm oil because Europe's cars and trucks now burn the rapeseed oil as a biofuel.

Many biofuels are associated with lower greenhouse gas emissions but have greater aggregate environmental costs than gasoline.

At the behest of the Government of India, the three national commodity exchanges, set up a little over three years ago, were required to organise futures trades in all commodities, whether of agricultural origin or not, through electronic online trading systems. The authorities did not stop at that.

This paper provides an overview of selected trends and conditions of ecosystem services, in particular, food production and impacts on the environment based on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. It then describes outcomes for future ecosystem services under alternative development pathways, with a focus on tradeoffs between food security and the environment, such as implications for fertilizer use, and the role of biofuels.