Estimates of climate-change impacts will get less, rather than more, certain. But this should not excuse inaction, say Mark Maslin and Patrick Austin.

Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence. The plausibility of a planetary-scale ‘tipping point’ highlights the need to improve biological forecasting by detecting early warning signs of critical transitions on global as well as local scales, and by detecting feedbacks that promote such transitions.

The paper presents the nature of annual cycles of tropospheric ozone, cloud occurrences, NO2, rainfall, SO2, SPM, CO, non-methane hydrocarbon and surface solar radiation for the period October 2004 to June 2009 over Alipore (22.52°N, 88.33°E), India. Annual cycle of low-level cloud occurrences depicts that the low-level cloud over Alipore had been noticed to occur for many days and nights, particularly from June to September. The low-level cloud occurrences were found in winter months and post-monsoon period.

The most used temperature and salinity climatology for the world ocean, including the Indian Ocean, is the World Ocean Atlas (WOA) (Antonov et al 2006, 2010; Locarnini et al 2006, 2010) because of the vast amount of data used in its preparation. The WOA climatology does not, however, include all the available hydrographic data from the Indian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), leading to the potential for improvement if the data from this region are included to prepare a new climatology.

International agreements to limit greenhouse gas emissions require verification to ensure that they are effective and fair. Verification based on direct observation of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations will be necessary to demonstrate that estimated emission reductions have been actualized in the atmosphere. Here we assess the capability of ground-based observations and a high-resolution (1.3 km) mesoscale atmospheric transport model to determine a change in greenhouse gas emissions over time from a metropolitan region.

The primary drivers of the Northern Hemisphere expansion of the tropical climate zone over the past several decades are shown to be the recent increases in black carbon aerosols and tropospheric ozone rather than in greenhouse gases, which contribute to a lesser extent.

Fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application in the United States have substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions, including oxides of nitrogen, ammonia, and nitrous oxide (N2O).

Clouds and aerosol particles have bedevilled climate modellers for decades. Now researchers are starting to gain the upper hand.